PL RELEGATION BATTLE: Who stays up?

Football is fuelled by emotions. The tingle when the deadliest player on the pitch steadies himself to shoot. The surge of excitement when the ball leaves the colourful fabric of his boots. Even the sight of the goalkeepers helpless eyes and dropped jaw following the ball as it flies past him. And then there is the swoosh of course. The goosebumps creeping back under the skin as the ball hits the back of the net. The momentary spin, lasting a microsecond before it drops to the lush green grass behind the goal line. The suffix to this is usually a resounding roar, or at least used to be.

The Premier League is back on Wednesday, exactly 100 days after …. Blew the final whistle of the Leicester City match against Aston Villa. Football fans all over the world have spent the better part of three part of three months without football. And while other countries have slowly resumed fixtures, the Premier League is by reasonable distance the most watched as well as the most anticipated. 

Yet while football is driven by the emotions, there are few things that evoke emotion in fans like relegation on any level. Relegation troubles board members almost as much as it troubles fans, especially from a league like the Premier League. TV money is a mouth watering sum whose financial impact overstated when it comes to balancing the books. Take for instance, Bournemouth who according to Tifo Football and figures for the period of 2018/19 have amassed 115.6 million out of 131.1 million from broadcasting payments. That is about 88% of their revenue generated. So lets take a deep dive into the clubs threatened by relegation and their cahnces of survival.

BRIGHTON

If you watch enough European football, the signing of Genk captain, Leandro Trossard would confuse you. Though he has not transferred his form to England, he is still a very good footballer. Graham Potter started out with the promise of exciting attacking football and to some extent he delivered. Alatze and Conolly are young exciting attacking talent but inconsistency along with no wins in 9 games since since December spells trouble. Their last fixtures are a not a pleasant read with Arsenal, Leicester, Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City left to play. But the difficult part is that they don’t play anyone on this list them except Norwich and that result is unlikely to change much.

Predicted Finish: 19th 

Key Player: Neil Maupay might be the goalscorer in the side but the Seagulls will need a good defence to survive. Lewis Dunk is the one to lead that backline and entire team if they can get the results they need.

WEST HAM

In the summer the Hammers signed Sebastian Haller, Pablo Fornals and Ajeti which at the time seemed like a signal of intent. By January they had hired David Moyes after sacking Mauricio Pellegrini and added Jarrod Bowen and Tomas Soucek to an already talented squad. In addition to Declan Rice, Felipe Anderson and Antonio, the team should be challenging for more prestigious positions in the table.  Talent-wise this squad is more than capable of pulling away from the relegation zone. Add to that the leadership in the squad in the form Mark Noble, Aaron Cresswell and Angelo Ogbonna. There fixtures are also relatively easy. West Ham play 3 of the teams in this list, mid table Newcastle though 2 London derbies against Chelsea and Spurs as well as a game against Manchester United can be banana peels. But if they win those around them they will definitely secure their safety. 

Predicted Finish: 15th

Key Player: Sebastien Haller hasn’t had as bad a season as is potrayed. If he starts firing, his goals can pull this team out of the mess they find themselves in.

WATFORD

For much of the seasoned Watford looked like a condemned side. Playing under 3 managers in one season hasn’t helped but the most recent one is a specialist in this situation. Nigel Pearson steered Leicester to safety the year before their great miracle. With Watford he has done a similar job, though arguably not to the same degree as this squad is talented enough not to be in this position. They toppled Liverpool before the break and Sarr, Deeney, Deulofeu and Doucoure are quality players. However, their fixtures will test their resolve. The Hornets still have to play Leicester, Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal. Picking up points against Norwich and the other midtable sides will be their best shot.

Predicted Finish: 17th 

Key Player: For their fixtures Watford will need a blend of grit and glamour to win points. Step up Abdoulaye Doucoure. He may not have hit the heights he set alst season but on his day, Doucoure is an absolute tank of a player capable of scoring and defending. Watford will need a bit of both.

BOURNEMOUTH

No question about it, the Cherries are a very talented squad. Top end Premier Leagues will scramble for the likes of Ake, Wilson, Brooks and even Fraser. But their squad was hit by an unreal number of injuries and that is the biggest contributing factor to they are in now. At some point the had eleven first team players injured. They still have to play Man City, Leicester, Spurs, Man United, Everton and Wolves before the season ends. Those are pretty big obstacles but the worrying thing is that they don’t play anyone around them and will depend on their character against teams in better positions. 

Predicted Finish: 18th 

Key Player: One look at these fixtures and you can see the Cherries need big defensive performances. The man to deliver should be Nathan Ake. He’s a class defender and Bournemouth will need every ounce of that class to stay up.

 

ASTON VILLA

Dean Smith’s side spent a lot of money after beating Derby in the playoffs. Wesley, Douglas Luiz, Marvelous Nakamba, Tom Heaton, Engels are some of the high profile ones. Down the spine of the team there have been injuries. Wesley and Heaton won’t be fit even after the 3 month pause. Villa will have boyhood fan and captain Jack Grealish and he will probably be the difference between points won and lost. John McGinn will also provide a big boost. A game in hand against Chris Wilder’s Blades is one of 4 other top 10 sides. 

Predicted Finish: 16th  

Key Player: Jack Grealish is crucial to any chance of survival. Keeping him fit and firing for the remaining games will be the top of Smith and Terry’s list.

NORWICH

The Canaries are, baring a genuine miracle, are as good as regulated. Stranger things have happened in 2020. The squad is youthful, with Max Aarons, Ben Godfrey, Jamal Lewis and Todd Cantwell feauturing heavily. Teemu Pukki has goals in his locker but for their run of fixtures the team will need more than just goals. With Arsenal, Everton, Chelsea and Manchester City still to play the side will need a little bit of luck as well as fight to get points fromm their fixtures before any conversation of staying up can begin. 8 points from safety with 9 games to play, the Canaries face a race to avoid dropping straight back down into the championship.

Predicted Finish: 20th

Key Player: Every single player in a yellow and green jersey will need to fight if Norwich are to avoid the drop.