MAYBE WE SHOULD'VE INSTEAD...PART 1

Transfers season. That time of the year when Fabrizio Romano comes to life and you can find more comments demanding "Sign Player X" rather than comments relating to the original post. But transfers are a delicate line to thread. It's a big hit and miss business and even the best Directors of Football have their fair share of missed on their CV. 

But from the outside, we enjoy something clubs don't. The benefit of hindsight. We get to evaluate things and say 'they should have signed this guy or that guy' without any background information. Would he have wanted to move, work with this coach, get paid that amount? There are many reasons transfers don't go through.

This is the first of a 4 part series where I will suggest a single player for each club currently in the Premier League. Every club has different needs, budgets, quotas and so on and I'll take that into consideration as I put players forward. For this piece we'll be considering

• Arsenal

• Leeds

• Everton

• Newcastle

• Brighton

Let's dive into our first team,

Arsenal

If you've watched Arsenal so far this season there's a painful sterility on display. When they aren't defending deep against bigger sides, they're struggling with the final pass to break down lesser teams. A very basic summary of how bad they've been so far is the fact that Aubameyang has scored only one goal in 6 games so far. That's damning considering he's one of the best finishers in the league. 

So what's the problem?

There's a distinct lack of creativity in this Arsenal team. Tactically they're extremely well drilled but they struggle with providing the final ball to the players up top. Arsenal have created an npxG of 6.5 so far. That's good enough for 8th place but that's less than half of Liverpool who have 13.9 npxG. They're also struggling to take shots with just 52 taken so far putting them a mere 14th, just 7 above bottom placed Palace on 45. They have just 14 shot Creating Actions per 90, 17th in the league. In short, their underlying metrics are poor.

So who's the solution?

I've gone for Roma playmaker Lorenzo Pellegrini. 

Why's he the solution?

Pellegrini is a hub of creativity. He has been a chance creation machine for Fonseca's men and is highly regarded in Italy. He has something no Arsenal player currently registered (Ozil, hmph) has. A natural eye for a pass and willingness to try the risky passes. His reverse passes in particular are a thing of beauty.

That graphic shows the gap between Arsenal's current perceived midfield trio and him creatively. Key passes are passes that lead to shots and shockingly not a single one of Partey's passes led to a shot last season. 

xA against Shot Creating Actions

He creates high quality chances and when compared to what Arsenal currently have, it's almost embarrassing. Partey is the dot in the bottom left. Low chance creation frequency with low quality too. 

Pellegrini also has a high Impact Score based on data from LGOP to back up his quality. His 115.6 score is 15.6 above the average and shows just how impressive his numbers are

Any problems?

The biggest issue is he doesn't fit naturally into the formation and tactical setup Arteta is playing right now. In Arteta's favoured 3-4-3 set up, he'll most likely have to be shoehorned into the side at left wing (he played there for Italy during the international break) or into a pivot. However there's a precedent for his addition. In his initial stretch, Arteta used a 4-2-3-1 with Ozil (sigh) as the no. 10. Pellegrini can fill that role perfectly. He can also play as an attacking 8 in a 4-3-3 if Arsenal go down that route.

Imagine Pellegrini disguised reverse passes into Aubameyang darting behind the lines! 

Leeds

Bielsa's wiley whites have been attracting everybody's attention. From Jack Harrison's goal in the 4-3 loss to Liverpool to the slick football that led to Bamford completing his hat trick. They press like robots and dribble like ballerinas. It's been impressive all the way and 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw is nothing to scoff at. 

So what's the problem?

Victor Orta has built an impressive squad, recruiting full internationals for a Leeds squad that just came up from the Championship. It has been an incredibly organized effort as I explained in this thread. One position Orta and his team were desperate to fill is a creative midfielder. A Pablo Hernandez successor. Pablo is 35 and even though he's eternal, it's obviously the rigors of the Premier League will wear him down at some points. So far, Bielsa has played Rodrigo and Tyler Roberts in that role but neither are particularly creative hubs. 

So who's the solution?

With Cuisance deal collapsing and Leeds being priced out of a move for Rodrigo De Paul, there's a faint idea of their budget for that position. With that in mind, I've gone for Sassuolo's Filipe Djuricic.

Why's he the solution?

First of all Djuricic will fall neatly between the price range. Transfermarkt has him valued at 4.5 million but of course that price is far from what Sassuolo will consider. Signed for around 8 million by Benfica, he bounced around on loans before Sassuolo picked him up for free. A really smart deal. Away from the finances, tactically Djuricic will be a very interesting pick for Bielsa. He's versatile, playing anywhere along the front 3 or behind the striker. 

This is a comparison of their 2019/20 in some key metrics. You can see that he's not far off from De Paul in creative metrics. If De Paul was seen as an outstanding deal then Djuricic should too. Another reason why I went for him is his finishing. Bamford is making doubters look stupid right now but in truth he can't do it all on his own. Djuricic is a good finisher by all measure. He ended last season with 5 goals from an xG of 3.3 and so far this season has 3 from an xG of 1.5. 

His Impact Score again from LGOP is 91.7 which is just under the average but according to their data too he's worth about 12.5 goals per season to his club. That would be a very welcome addition for Leeds United

Any problems?

Well you never know how a player reacts to Bielsa and his gruesome intensity. Klich has made 25.8 pressure attempts this season per 90 and Djuricic is on 14.9 even though he averaged 17.5 last season. It looks a small gap but even though Djuricic is a hard worker he'll need to up his game at Leeds. Again he'll have to play a bit deeper than he's used to. He's played there in the past but with Jeremy Boga out, he's been used on the flanks and shone there. With very few changes to his game and a little adaptation the 28 year old Serbian international could be super for Leeds.

Only downside is he won't be wearing the number 9 shirt despite not being a striker as he usually does.

Everton

Top of the league only recently toppled by Southampton for the first time this season. The team was depleted by suspensions and injuries and for the later stages down to 10 men but that match alone can't do away with all the good things Carlo has done. They're genuinely fun to watch and the numbers back that up. 9.5 non-penalty expected goals is 4th in the league but in the form Calvert-Lewin is in, they're almost guaranteed to outperform it every day. They also have the best goal to shot ratio, 0.19, showing how effective they are at converting chances. The new midfielders have looked great even though they've slowed down recently, Allan and Doucoure. James Rodriguez looked like the best player in the league for long spells. Coleman looks rejuvenated at right back too.

So what's the problem?

Well with everything going so well on the pitch it's hard to fault any of that but off the pitch Everton made an interesting decision. After loaning Moise Kean out to PSG and with Cenk Tosun out with a long term injury, they decided not to sign a striker. That means DCL is the only natural front man in the team. Richarlison can feature there but in a 4-3-3 you'll be worried about that option. The trick here is you need someone who is ok sitting back with DCL's form but driven enough to fight for his place in the team. 

So who's the solution?

Because I have no idea how much Everton had to spend on a striker, if anything at all, I've gone for a cheaper option. Osasuna striker, Chimy Avila. 

Why's he the solution?

Disclaimer: He tore his ACL in September but that doesn't mean he's not ideal. 

Financially, Avila would be a good deal. Osasuna paid just over 2 million for him and they'll happily entertain offers that Everton can squeeze out. For a squad fit, he's not established enough to demand starts immediately but he's determined enough to fight for a chance. Tactically however, he can be the key to unlocking certain games. He's a striker with a lot of grit and toughness to his game, almost in the Diego Costa mould. He plays like he's on the edge all through games. Last season he scored 7 from an xG of 7.2 and that shows he's efficient with his finishing but nothing more. However if his supply line includes James Rodriguez and Lucas Digne you can see that tally rising. He's not in any way dominant in the air but the main reason for this pick is he offers them something different from their current options. 

Any problems? 

Obviously you worry about his ACL. But injury aside, there's also a worry about his adaptability to the league but as Everton have a nice South American core you suspect he'll be ok. The biggest potential issue is whether Carlo wants versatility at all. He developed Calvert-Lewin from a channel runner to a penalty poacher so does he really want another energy filled attacker? We can't be sure but there's no reason to scoff at something different especially when they can both play up top in a 4-4-2 or Avila on the right of a 4-3-3.

Newcastle

Newcastle fans had reason to be excited during the window. Callum Wilson, Ryan Fraser, Jamal Lewis and Jeff Hendricks are all very good buys for the club. Steve Bruce? Not so much. They had particularly bad metrics last season and survived but you worry that this season they might not be so lucky. Second bottom shots taken (48). Fourth bottom npxG (4.2). The xG against them is 9.0 and even though that's ahead of Liverpool and Leeds, Newcastle don't have the structure or quality defensively that those clubs have. It's not sustainable. 

So what's the problem?

Newcastle have a lot of problems. There's no consistency so it's very difficult to discern what they actually need the most. The attacking players have the talent to do a lot more. So maybe they need a player who will provide a platform for them to be a little more expressive in the final third. Isaac Hayden is a good player but in a pivot with another capable defensive player, Bruce should have more confidence to let his players attack. 

So who's the solution?

I've gone for someone Newcastle already have registered interest in. Boubakare Soumare at Lille. 

Why's he the solution?

Soumare is a very good defensive midfielder. He can provide the foundation for the likes of Almiron, Saint-Maximin and Fraser to flourish. Whether alone or in a double pivot, there's a lot to like about him. Compared to Hayden last season you can see a similar player defensively. 

Unfortunately, Newcastle and Lille play style are almost two different extremes. What the stats don't make so clear however is that his style of play. He's a willing runner but more importantly he keeps it simple. In a like team with Araujo, Sanches, Bamba and Ikone; he would simply take the ball and pass it off to the more creative players. Sounds simple but it's really not. 

Any problems?

Yes! Like I said earlier, Bruce's black and white army are hard to read. They play a style that is parallel to what Soumare is used to at Lille or PSG where he came through. But the biggest issue would be whether or not the gaffer is ready to unleash the talent on his books. If he wants to stick to his current setup then Soumare might not be advisable. 

Brighton

Everyone's favourite unfortunate side. Graham Potter has transformed Brighton from the side Chris Houghton left behind. They're now a fearless pressing side full of attacking intent. So far this season they've outplayed Chelsea and Manchester United but somehow lost both games. They rank 7th for non penalty xG with 7, 6th for shots taken with 75. Their 103 shot creating actions from open play passes is the 4th best in the league. Their attacking metrics are gigantic leaps forward for a side who just 2 years ago were heavily reliant on Groß and Murray connecting for goals.

So what's the problem?

The Brighton squad has a very encouraging look about it. Three huge solid defenders keep it calm at the back. Maupay is flanked by Trossard with Bissouma and Lallana just behind. However there's one posting in particular that's suspect. Left wing back. Solly March plays there but he's a natural winger and for all his efforts it is sometimes clear to see. Having White, Dunk and Webster behind you helps but his positioning and decision-making in the role can and has been exploited by better teams.

So who's the solution?

This summer there were a lot of left backs and left wing backs moving clubs. Chillwell, Regulion, Tsimikas to mention a few. There's still players like Alejandro Grimaldo that'll be good buys but Brighton may not have the finances. Sessegnon and Vinagre both moved away from the Premier League on loan. Either would have been great acquisitions for the Seagulls. But my choice is Dortmund's Nico Schultz.

Why's he the solution?

First of all, he should want to get out of BVB. Since signing from Hoffenhiem, he struggled to hold a place down and this season Favre preferred Thorgan Hazard over him at the left wing role. Even if it's just a loan, it would be good for him.

On the football side, the former Hoffenhiem man would be a very complimentary to Tariq Lamptey on the opposite flank. His stats from his final season there in 18/19 are similar to what the Brighton revelation is putting up. He's direct too, with pace and trickery to get passed men and create shooting chances for teammates. 

Any problems?

You never know how willing a footballer is to take a step down in order to revive their career but Schulz is still young. Asides that, he's an extremely good tactical fit. And would be an interesting deal to see done. 

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