Salah, Messi, Ronaldo and Football's Future through J Cole's Lens

1985 I arrived. 

It's the very last track on J Cole's 5th studio album. Now I know you're wondering what Jermaine has to do with Salah and football. 

Stay with me. 

United vs Liverpool kicked off by 4:30pm on Sunday. While the reality of United's struggles was sinking in, 65,000+ people were settling in for Le Classique. The biggest game in English football followed by the biggest in French football. Of the 57 players to see the pitches, around 20 have a legitimate claim to being in the top 10 players in their position on the planet.

Fix the lens on 2 of those, Liverpool's Mohammed Salah and PSG's Lionel Messi and you have a slight glimpse of football's future and in a way, an era of the beautiful game that is fading out.

And this is where J Cole comes in. In 1985, he rapped and I quote 

"...I hear your music and I know that rap's changed

A bunch of folks would say that that's a bad thing

'Cause everything's commercial and it's pop now

Trap drums is the shit that's hot now

See, I've been on a quest for the next wave..."

These bars speak very common concept in life. Things come and go. Change happens. Better ways to achieve better results are just an inevitable part of our natural progression. The more understanding and context we have, the more we can influence outcomes. Time provides more time and context. 

Football is no different. With time lots of things have changed in the game. Yellow cards, reds, throw ins, shirt numbers, VAR everything was new at a point. Total football, tiki taka, gegenpressing. It's constantly evolving. 

Let's rewrite those Cole's lyrics and pretend he was a football fan ranting instead of an all timer dissing Lil Pump.

"I watch your games and I know that football's changed

A bunch of folks would say that that's a bad thing

'Cause everything's pressing and it's closing down now

Harrasing opposition is the shit that's hot now

See, I've been on a quest for the next wave"

Doesn't quite work with the flow and cadence anymore. But it still works with the overall point. A point that was emphasized if you watched a front line of Salah, Jota and Firmino for 90 minutes. Another with Ronaldo for an entire game. Then almost instantly watched one of Messi, Mbappe, Neymar and Di Maria. 

Liverpool had 63% possession yet Jota, Firmino and Salah managed to apply pressure on their opponents 25, 22 and 10 times respectively. Those are frankly insane numbers. They're also not numbers you'll ever expect to see from Messi and co. Difference in playing style is a factor but also the fact that Messi, Neymar and Mbappe really don't do pressing. Messi is in the bottom 2% of pressures for forwards in the last 365 days. Mbappe is in the bottom 1%. You can argue the gap in ability between them is so much, they don't need to press to win games. You'll be insane but when has that ever stopped people?

Back to J Cole for a moment. In those bars he addresses a big "issue". A bunch of folks say it's a bad thing to play like Salah. Their argument can usually be summarized by saying either or all of "it's robotic", "it lacks expression" or/and "it's uninspiring to watch". We can argue against those points for what is left of the century and never agree. So we won't. Different people enjoy different things. Some like the rainbow flicks, stepovers and elasticos. Others find thrill in a pacey run and finish. We're different. Blame your creator or big bang. 

Salah is a blueprint for the modern forward. This is beyond his current hot streak and the cloud of inevitability that has hung above him at Liverpool. He does too much to an elite or just beneath elite level. From attacking output to defensive input, his contributions to Liverpool are top tier. There's not many footballers on the absolute elite stage who combine finishing and technical ability and still have the energy and eagerness to counterpress. The hat trick vs Ole's Red Devils was just a reminder of his claim to the mythical throne of "Best in the World".

The real question then becomes has football really moved on from forwards without any defensive output? If so how much? 

Manchester City, Liverpool, Bayern and  Chelsea are arguably 4 of the best 5 teams in the universe (assuming aliens don't rate football...also I'm very tempted to say Ajax complete the 5). They all to varying degrees excel at pressing, winning possession, transitioning quickly and so on. In those clubs it's a lot more about the collective even though they might have a supercharged individual that takes the glory. In each of those teams the forwards are generally very hardworking to go with their technical ability. It's a philosophy that you can say brings results and trophies. More than just that, there's a pattern emerging. In those clubs that intend to groom prospects then sell, they're prioritizing players that fit this philosophy. Salzburg for instance have churned out players like Mwepu, Daka, Adeyemi, Okafor and the likes who have the energy levels and tactical awareness to defend from the front. 

And so it feels inevitable in a way. J Cole said he's been on the quest for the next wave. The next wave is here. It's not really a wave that allows for playing with a trio of the world's most defensively inept forwards. More than that, it's a wave that feeds on anyone brave (or otherwise) enough to play in that manner. That's something PSG could feel in the latter stages of the Champions' League. 

Important to point out here that though Messi's defensive output is about as much as my chances of starting for PSG's reserves ever, he wasn't always like that. He's a 34 years old with a tonne of senior significant minutes in the tank. You don't expect him to buzz around the pitch like a Formula 1 car. 

It's a similar with Ronaldo at Manchester United. They're some of the greatest players ever but are they net negatives for their team now? Quite possible. Especially in the context of the wages they consume, pathways they block, expectations they bring and more.

 

Back to J Cole, to finish the Messi and Ronaldo talk. There are more bars that can be repurposed to this context. 

"You hit the next city, collect your money when it's due

You gettin' that paper, swimmin' in bitches, I don't blame you

You ain't thinkin' 'bout the people that's lookin' like me and you

True, you got better shit to do

You coulda bought a crib with all that bread that you done blew

I know you think this type of revenue is never endin'

But I wanna take a minute just to tell you that ain't true

One day, them kids that's listening gon' grow up

And get too old for that shit that made you blow up

Now your show's lookin' light cause they don't show up

Which unfortunately means the money slow up

Now you scramblin' and hopin' to get hot again

But you forgot you only popped 'cause you was ridin' trends

Now you old news and you goin' through regrets"

Now now. If we rewrote those like we did before we'll be stuck with a lot of filler bars in addition to a broken cadence and rhythm. So let's pick out certain lines. There's a 99.997% chance none of Ronaldo or Messi will ever run out money. Neither as well are under any illusion that they can play forever. That type of revenue is not eternal even though they're definitely set for life. They've been hitting cities however and collecting their money. The thing is, it's not about the kids growing too old for them here. It's about them growing too old to contribute to football games in the ways they once did. They've ridden their trend and it's one their bodies naturally don't permit them to keep on with. In Cole's words they're too old for the shit that made them blow up and slightly paraphrasing it unfortunately means the goal contributions slow up. Now they're "old news" but I doubt there's any ounce of regret in either when they look back at what they've achieved.