THE CHELSEA CONUNDRUM: PART I
Going into the season there was an excitement surrounding Chelsea. Understandably so. When you spend a reported €250 million Euros (that's 250,000,000 to put into context. Look at all those zeros), people are bound to look at you with expectations, excitement, envy (I've run out of alliterations). Kai Havertz, Timo Werner, Ben Chillwell, Hakim Ziyech, Edouard Mendy plus Thiago Silva and Malang Sarr on free represent a significant outlay. Now, all this money can be seen as Chelsea making up for not being able to sign last summer due to their transfer ban and that's true to a large extent. But in the past few years, Atletico Madrid and Barcelona have both had these bans and haven't splurged out on some of the most in demand players in world football at the very next opportunity. (Barca might have bought Arda Turan, remember him? And Aleix Vidal who I'm not sure they faced any competition for).
Yet, all that excitement seems to mellowed in a mixture of reality and results. Of all the signings only Ben Chillwell has Premier League football under his belt even though that's no excuse considering the talent acquired. And if anyone needed to understand just how much gelling in is needed when you sign 6 (HALF OF 11 IS 5.5!) potential first team players, then refer to Azpilicueta. The skipper said against Crystal Palace, the backline communicated in French. That's a tiny bit odd when you consider it's an English Premier League fixture. But Silva and Mendy both joined from Ligue 1 this summer and so did Zouma and Azpilicueta years ago. (Chillwell I doubt needed to communicate much with his heatmap showing he spent more time chatting with Joel Ward higher up).
Three wins from six in all competitions seems to have quelled the excitement too. Granted of the other three, Liverpool was a loss when down to ten men, Spurs was on penalties and coming back from three goals down again West Brom to draw is supernatural considering the results that followed (The teams that finished above Chelsea last season conceded 20 and scored 9 amongst themselves). But performances have not been as encouraging as the results. Brighton was as good as a fluke with all the pressure coming from the Seagulls for most of the game. Barnsley are not Premier League level (Gerhard Struber is however definitely) but still threatened a lot more until they collapsed defensively. (Caballero had to make 9 saves! NINE!) Palace was difficult to break down in the first half (like last season, 0-0 at the break) and two penalties made it 4-0 at full time.
But what's the problem at Chelsea?
Primarily it's the system. Lampard is to blame for some of this but he's had to integrate 8 new players into the squad without a proper preseason. (Yes, preseason is about more than just watching Real Madrid lose to Arsenal in America). Havertz hadn't lived in London a week before Brighton. Same with Mendy against Palace. Silva had to be quarantined for 2 weeks before playing. In some ways you can say Lampard should have decided on a way over the break to play all these players but you can't expect him to have known which deals would have been doable.
So what system can Lampard exactly play with this team?
The Liverpool Blueprint
If you're getting consecutive points of 97 and 99 in the Premier League, the latter with an 18 point gap to second then you're definitely doing something right. (My God, City were closer to 5th than first. Not much when 3rd and 4th are closer to Watford in 19th than Liverpool). Off the pitch, Liverpool have been great but on the pitch too they've been brilliant.
Nominally, Klopp's men line up in a 4-3-3 on paper but base formations are rarely translated to the pitch. Their most used team last season is this.
But on the pitch Liverpool are usually set up in a 2-3-5 with the fullbacks pushing really high, Firmino slightly withdrawn and the wide forwards coming inside. This allows for them to have numerical supremacy against a backline especially against a back four.
In their 3-1 win against Arsenal, according to Sofascore, the average position of the players reinforces this explanation system.
For all the praise this system receives it doesn't work if a lot of players don't perform their role well. Trent is a fullback with the playmaking ability that a lot of attacking midfielders can only dream of. Salah and Mane are deadly finishers cutting in on their strong foot but both of them are extremely busy defensively off the ball. Firmino is a rare type of forward. His dropping off and dragging defenders is a major part of why this team succeeds. His understanding of space is almost perfect that you can forgive when his on-the-ball contributions are a bit poor. Then there's the high line. Against Aston Villa in the 7-2 loss (If you're reading this in the future and Villa end up winning the league in 2021, it was actually a shock when they won Liverpool) the high line might have imploded but when it's on, Klopp's men are close to untouchable. That doesn't work necessarily without Gomez's pace, Van Djik's superhuman skills, Allison's sweeping and passing or Fabinho's defensive awareness.
So how can Chelsea replicate it? Or maybe the question should be can they?
The biggest problems facing this would be:
The high line: Chelsea can play that high up but it's extremely risky. For all the excellence of Thiago Silva, he's no Van Djik. He's a very different type of defender and if a line is too high, he can get caught out very easily.
The midfield: The midfield is probably Chelsea's biggest weakness. Liverpool's is very functional. (Or at least was. They just had to go out and sign Thiago🙄). Fabinho is a natural defensive midfield which is something Chelsea don't have in their ranks right now. (If you say Kante is a defensive midfielder then you've been watching TV from a pirated Martian feed)
That doesn't mean it's impossible. Lampard would need to make a few tiny tweaks to get his squad to play something similar.
The best XI for this is ⤵️
That'll mean that in possession and when attacking you're asking them to have this shape.
This is not exactly the same as Liverpool. The line will have to drop a few yards deeper. Jorginho is not Fabinho but rather than see that as a disadvantage, imagine bringing that distribution ability to the structure. Isn't that what Klopp brought Thiago to do? Mount and Kante are very active players with immense engines and though both might be more tempted to roam forward than Gini and Henderson it can work. Joe Cole recently said he sees Havertz in that Firmino mould. As a deep lying forward, Kai would be able to combine his strengths of goal scoring and combination play. Werner is already conversant with playing off the left as an inside forward (not a winger, sir Lampard!). Pulisic though he's played predominantly on the left for Chelsea so far, he's shown an eye for goal and if he can translate that to the right side he is more than capable of being the right sided inside forward.
The Manchester City Blueprint
When they aren't losing 5-2 to Leicester, Man City can be really good. (If they lose to Arsenal AGAIN then that'll be up for debate). Pep's City team are a hybrid of things he learnt in his last two jobs (This man has managed only 3 clubs, Barcelona, Bayern and Man City. That's honestly insane). At Barca it was tiki taka with Xavi and Iniesta passing till opponents were so dizzy they puked. La Liga was always more about beautiful football with patient buildup. At Bayern, it was a more complex formation with three at the back sometimes and a lot more emphasis on pressing. Barca were ridiculously good pressers too but in Bundesliga teams are a lot more active and hound you trying to win the ball back instantly. City is the commonplace between these two teams. The style is a lot more direct than at Barca but with more control than Bayern.
So how do his City team line up?
When they attack it's something like this more often than not (when he's not playing Phil Foden as a false nine and Jesus is not hugging the touchline).
The high line is again present, with Laporte having similar qualities to Virgil Van Djik and Fernandinho (or Rodri) able to do the dirty work like Fabinho. The right sided partner has been a problem for them but hopefully Ruben Dias solves that. But where City and Liverpool agree to disagree is to have a line five players when attacking. Liverpool's fullbacks push high to make the five but City's fullbacks primarily invert to create numerical supremacy in the midfield. Tucking in instead of spreading out. (Sometimes they do move wide, that's how Mendy gets the chances to cross from the left side straight to the fans in the right stand). The wide players stretch the defensive line by pushing out wide and attracting fullbacks. Mahrez especially will hug the touchline and beat defenders by dribbling or playing through balls into the space they vacated. This creates space for the "free 8s" De Bruyne and Silva to attack the channels. De Bruyne whips his trademark low crosses from this part of the pitch.
Aguero will sometimes drop and combine but he's nominally on the end of moves and playing as a striker.
Can Chelsea replicate this system? Again Lampard will need subtle tweaks to implement something broadly similar because of the personnel available.
The problems with reproducing this at Chelsea are:
The high line: It's basically for the same reason as for Liverpool. Thiago Silva is great but he's not that type of defender even though if asked I'm sure he'll do his best
The midfield (AGAIN): Chelsea have a lot of midfielders on their plate but not Rice (see what I did there? This is not a Rice-to- Chelsea endorsement but that's a topic for another day). Without a natural defensive midfielder like Fernandinho, Jorginho is the best option (Don't say Kante please). There's a reason City wanted Jorginho the summer he joined Chelsea and eventually signed Rodri. Pep like Klopp understand that a player with quality distribution and deep playmaking ability gives the team another dimension. But the other 8 becomes an issue. Mount is best used as an 8 but the same can't be said for Havertz. He's a 10 that can be played deeper, wider or higher but those aren't going to get the best out of him. He can adapt of course but is the risk worth it?
The lone forward: Werner isn't usually used as a lone forward for Germany and he wasn't for Leipzig. With all his talent he can of course play the role but Abraham might be a better fit for this system. In the end Werner is more impressive in front of goal and gets the nod. He's no Aguero but he has the same hunger for goals and finishing ability and with some adjustments maybe he can play the role. Again, is it worth it?
The best XI for this system is ⤵️
Meaning when attacking on the pitch the formation will look more like this.
This isn't exactly what City offer. In the center of defense, Silva and Zouma should be able to perform just fine if the line drops a little deeper. Reece James is not a Walker clone but he has experience playing as a midfielder and that will come in handy when he's asked to tuck in. On the left, Chillwell like Mendy might be uncomfortable inverting and will probably stay wider making overlapping runs when the opportunity arises. Jorginho can do the distribution, dictation and dirty deeds (alliteration alert!!). How consistent is another issue? He's not as defensively capable as Fernandinho. For the 8s, Mount and Havertz can exploit the channels and that's a very encouraging partnership for the long term if it works. Out wide, you'll notice I switched Pulisic and Ziyech over. Reason? If they play their natural positions, they'll be tempted to cut in on their stronger foot and shoot or play incisive passes rather than stretch the defensive line. And up top Turbo Timo (alliter- I'm sure you get it now) will handle the scoring and combination play.
What do the stats say?
I've selected stats that I believe give a general overview of the roles the players are asked to play in Liverpool and City and stacked it up against how a Chelsea player in the same position has performed so far. For the stats selected I have deliberately avoided the accuracy or efficiency with which the player has performed whatever action and focused on the frequency. Why? Simply because I'm taking a look at if the Chelsea player has done something similar rather than how well they have without checking if they do that at all. For example, I used tackles rather than tackles won etc.
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