WHAT'S WRONG AT ARSENAL?

Arsenal. Arteta. Aubameyang. What do those names have in common? Yes, they all start with A, the first letter of the alphabet, but right now the North London side are more associated with U for underwhelming. 12th in the table with 13 points from a possible 27 in 9 games. They've scored 9 goals and conceded 10 so far and those raw numbers are a huge worry for fans, players and Arteta himself. With Arteta finding his feet at managerial level and proving quite good at it, there's a sense that the process is more important than the product. That's not entirely true. The Spaniard has been guilty for setting up his team in an extremely rigid format for majority of games. There's no creative presence on the pitch and so even well rehearsed and proven patterns of play can look a bit stale. Ozil is frozen out of the squad. Xhaka, Partey, Elneny, Ceballos and Willock all have their strengths but neither will create a steady stream of shooting chances for a team. They're not just that type of player. And the raw numbers back that up.

Speaking of raw numbers, here's a few.

That's Arsenal's start to the Premier League season. Combine watching Arsenal and that little table and there's a narrative to grasp. Arteta's men have the ball a lot but it's passive and not penetrative and so they're struggling for shots and ultimately, goals. There's also the fact that they're expected to concede the 3 most goals in the league and that's a worry but right now they're solid enough defensively to outperform that figure. 

But the raw numbers don't tell even half the story. So let's dive deeper into Arsenal and where the problems lie using our eyes, the numbers and our heads.

The first thing to understand is how they setup and possibly why they do that.

On paper, Arsenal set up in a 3-4-3 formation for most games but that's just on paper. (To understand the difference between setup on paper and on the pitch see this thread on Twitter) 

Basically, Arsenal's 3-4-3 when in possession morphs into a 4-3-3 in it's purest form. Tierney pushes into a standard attacking left back role. The left wing back, Saka or Maitland-Niles, drift infield into a more centre midfield role. Those two changes flip around the team's setup to a big effect. So Arsenal need a very tactically disciplined left side to do this. There's an feeling, Arteta wants to play a 4-3-3 but doesn't have the players. This setup allows him have that have that 4-3-3 when constructing attacks but a 5-4-1 when defending (which he's made them much better at).

Unfortunately or fortunately, Arteta is constantly making tiny tweaks to his system. We've seen Xhaka dropping into a false fullback or left sided centre back role. There's been a front four with natural Pepe on the right, Aubameyang central and Saka and Willian interchanging between the #10 and the left. There's been a front four with Willock as #10, flanked by Pepe and Willian and Aubameyang up top. Even Willian as a false nine. So here and now, we'll crush the myth that Arteta doesn't have tactical variations. The problem however is he usually uses them in response to an opponent. Respectively, each instance was to counter specific things in Man United last season, Sheffield United during the game, Leeds from the start and Manchester City till it obviously wasn't working. 

So what's the problem then? 

Players?

System?

Bad luck?

Let's let the numbers answer that. Or better I'll answer that myself and let the numbers back me up. 

Two words: Creating Chances

 

This graph is basically a ratio of completed passes to the passes that lead to shooting chances. Qualitative-Quantitative? This is a quantitative analysis so we're not considering how likely the shots were to lead to goals, just the fact that they flew off the boots. 

Summary? Arsenal are not particularly bad at penetrative passing. Hence, "lots of passes with few leading to shots".

The Gunners have completed the 6th most passes in the league but are as low as 15th for key passes. There's a lot of passing just for the sake of it, especially horizontal or backwards. Without verticality or urgency in their passes, they find it difficult to break down opposition and therefore struggle for goals. For context, Arsenal share that quadrant with Brighton and Everton. Two sides with extremely different fortunes in the league so far. Why? We'll answer that with the next graph.

This graph is much more qualitative. How likely are the shots taken by a team to end up as a goal. Once again, here Arsenal are in the wrong quadrant. They don't take enough shots and when they do they are very low quality shots. In that team, there aren't many consistently excellent finishers. There's Aubameyang and that's probably about it. 

Remember Brighton and Everton? This is why their fortunes are so different. Brighton are in the quadrant just above Arsenal. Plenty shots but generally of lower quality. Everton on the other hand take plenty of high quality shots. This implies the team don't provide their best player (cough cough Aubameyang) with quality service. It's rocket science but in simpler words, no quality chances = no goals. (It doesn't help when Lacazette air kicks the easy ones though.)

Another one. This time it's about how active teams are in the penalty area. The Gunners? Wrong quadrant! Any chance in the penalty area is more convertible than on any other part of the pitch. Sounds easy but do you see any team play their corners to a man standing in the centre circle? Why? Because if it goes into the box it's much more likely to be converted into a goal. 

Arteta's men don't do a lot in the box. They don't play too many passes into the penalty area and they definitely don't have a lot of touches in there either.

Look at that highlighted cluster of teams? Who's in there? Burnley, Spurs, West Ham, Southampton, Sheffield United and Leicester. It seems like teams on extreme ends of the scale. Imagine the typical Tottenham or Leicester goal (when it's not Vardy blasting a penalty into the top corner at 99km/s). It's a pass into space behind a defensive line to Son or Vardy where they then carry the ball into the penalty area and finish. So the pass isn't going into the box directly but the player carries it into the area (touching it along the way, of course!). 

The last "team-based" graph. This one is relatively straightforward. Arsenal are the very first club on the chart. Keep your eyes on the peak of their bar. I dare you slide your head along in a straight horizontal line from that peak without shaking your head when you notice the clubs narrowly above or below that point (Note: it's harder if you're an Arsenal fan). You have Arsenal, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Sheffield United and West Brom. Not the lofty company any Gunners' fan would have imagined at the start of the season. 

What do those sides have in common? They're all rigid defensive units and as a result don't rack up the chance creation figures. Arsenal don't have enough actions (passes, dribbles, other shots etc) leading to shots and even then they don't convert enough of those few to goals. Look at the graph again. This time at Leicester. They have similar shot creating actions to Arsenal but a much higher percentage are converted to goals. A similar story with Southampton.

Enough about the team, are Arsenal just a poorly built side with the wrong group of players? There's an element of that with the squad having too many players that haven't quite figured out their best position or role (Saka, Maitland-Niles, Ceballos) and players who would prefer to play in the same position (Aubameyang, Lacazette, Tierney, Saka, Willian, Pepe). That's not all however. Watching this team, you can see they are missing one crucial piece; a creative playmaker. They pay one who on his day isn't an absolute unit but he's not registered. For forever I've suggested Lorenzo Pellegrini at Roma who can play as a 10 or 8. But all the links are to Dominic Szoboszlai and/or Houssem Aouar. How likely are those deals? We're never too sure but we're sure any one of the 3 will be a massive boost.

And the numbers prove it

For key passes the highest ranked Arsenal players is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang with 12 at a rate of 1.33 per 90. That ranks him 21st in the league so far. There's so much wrong with that. You don't want your most clinical finisher providing passes for others to score (Unless Arteta is onto something here 🤔). The next highest? Dani Ceballos with 9 in 46th place.

For passes into the penalty area, Bellerin ranks highest with 11 and he's 27th in the league. Second is Willian with 8 in 56th! That's disastrous.

Maybe it gets better for expected assists. Spoiler: it doesn't. 

Dani Ceballos is a barely respectable 16th in the league with 1.6 xA and he's underperforming that, by no fault of his. Not enough clinical finishers or finishes. Bellerin, next in line, 50th in the league and outperforming his 0.9 by 1.1. Sadly, those 2 assists came in the same game. For some much needed context, Cengiz Under has 1.6 xA and is yet to start a game for Leicester and has played just over 100 minutes in total (101 to be exact).

Maybe there's something to be said about the opponents they've faced so far this season. So far they've faced 5 of the teams in the top half in their 9 games. Add to that Man United who finished third last season. Asides the 2.16xG they amassed on opening day in their 3-0 win against Fulham, the most they have is 1.39 against Aston Villa and they lost that match 3-0. 

For all the things wrong at the Arsenal, there's a sense of direction and mood around the club that is definitely a source of encouragement. Also, the fact that most of their problems look like they can be solved by simply buying a more creative player is a reason to be optimistic. They might not get their man in January but if they get the right guy and surround him with the right conditions, they'll very likely see an astronomical change in their fortunes. Till then they're quest to qualify for Europe is looking a lot trickier.