The Milan Mountain: What's going on in San Siro?

14 wins. 3 draws. 1 loss. 41 goals scored and just 20 conceded. I'd tell you to whisper quietly that Milan are back but Zlatan would prefer it out loud. Milan are sitting pretty at the top of Serie A, 5 points ahead of their neighbours, Inter, in second and 7 points clear in the top 4 places. In the summer, the Saga of San Siro was Ralph Ragnick coming into their temple as some sort of supreme overload serving as manager, director of football, medical expert etc. Fast forward and the winter months are full of enthusiasm under Pioli and his band of merry milanistas.

So far Milan have played 3 of the top 6 clubs in Serie A winning Inter and Napoli but drawing with Roma via a late-ish Marash Kumbulla goal. In the league they've scored 23 and conceded 9 and the conversation has shifted from "how long can they keep this going?" to "can anyone stop them?" But Pioli isn't a revolutionary. He isn't playing heavy metal football nor tiki taka possession and rotation football. He's taking the team and worked a way out to play to the strengths of the best XI.

The Best XI

This is the lineup that Pioli considers his best nominally both by minutes and talent, and he's probably right. The average age of that XI is just over 25 years. If we take 39 years old Zlatan out for Rebic it drops to 24. But before we talk about the rotation options, the starting XI are a well built side with a fine balance. There's the passing ability of Bennecar and Hakan, the pace and direct running of Theo, Leao and Saelemaekers. The defensive stability of Kjær and Romagnoli. Just as important, the all round excellence of Ibrahimovic. 

The Alternative XI

Look at the quality of the second string team. This is a completely different team and yet you can back this team to ease past some teams in the top 5 leagues. The depth of the squad is one of it's most underrated strengths. Also, the fact that the replacements are broadly similar to the person playing ahead of them, helps them transition easily into the team without any need to overhaul or tweak the system.

GENERAL SQUAD STRENGTHS

• Solid range of passing both progressive and penetrative especially in midfield

• Dynamic full backs with output that can contribute at both ends

• Good ball carrying and dribbling ability in wide areas 

• Willingness to try the more difficult actions such as passes or dribbles in tight spaces

TACTICS

Pioli like I said before is not trying anything overly unique with the players. Rather, he has returned to the basics and simply played a system that allows his players to flourish. 

Milan line up in a 4-2-3-1 on paper but that switches around depending on how they want to exploit certain areas. The constant however are that the full backs push very high to serve as attacking outlets with Theo Hernandez mostly overlapping and Calabria on the right both over and underlapping. As a result the midfielders in the pivot occasionally drop in false full back positions to offer an option in buildup or an extra body while defending. 

The long passing ability from deep is a tool when combined with the dominating stature and supreme control of Zlatan gives the Rossoneri and option of booting it upfield where he can either hold onto the ball before laying it off or knock it down to the wide players who've come inside. But they can also build up in a more patient manner with their aim mostly to get the full back and the wide player ahead of him to play quick passes that end up with one having space to run into. For instance, Leao on the right would come infield pulling the opposition fullback with him and making the pitch narrow.

As shown above, Hernandez will have huge space to run into and this is one of the situations Pioli has coached into happening more often. 

Milan are also very good at using the gravity of certain players to create spaces on the other extreme. They would stack the half spaces pulling a team towards that area before playing a cross-field switch to a free player on the other side. 

Again Theo Hernandez is in space after a Bennecar long pass (yellow line). From there he can drive into the box and shoot, cross for preferably Zlatan or cutback to an inrushing midfielder. 

The beauty of Milan is that they can play around (wide play) or through (central play). Against back 3s or 5s they use width, with the aim of enlarging the gaps between the defenders as well as pulling them out of their shape. If the wide areas are difficult to exploit, Milan are more than comfortable passing the ball through the centre and generating their chances from that. 

GOALS GOL GOLAZO

41 goals is no mean fear especially considering the lack of apparent consistent firepower in the squad outside of Zlatan. 

But how do Milan generate most of their chances that actually get converted into goals? 

Clue: "It's pure maths"

Crosses and cutbacks!

Pioli's men put in a variety of crosses into the box and it's not just because of Zlatan's height. The wingers and fullbacks offer a variety of crosses from low, driven, whipped, chipped etc to head, feet, chest etc. 

In October, Milan scored 6 goals directly from crosses and 2 goals from situations following a cross. This includes Saelemaekers rebound shot from a corner crossed in (Rio Ave), Leao's poke from a laid off Saelemaekers cross (Spezia). That's exactly half (8) of the 16 goals they scored in that month. If you include the cutback in the penalty area, Diaz scored from it's up to 9 (56.25%) from crosses and cutback.

 In November, they scored 2 from cutbacks, 4 from crosses directly and 1 from crosses indirectly. This is Romagnoli's header at the far post from a corner laid off by Kessie. Crunch the numbers again and that's 70% of their 10 goals from crosses and cutbacks in November. 

The Rossoneri are a bit weird (by modern standards) with the more advanced wide players crossing much more than their fullbacks. Leao and Saelemaekers cross 0.73 and 0.68 per 90 compared to Calabria and T. Hernandez 0.51 and 0.2 crosses per 90. In fact in Europe Calabria and Hernandez especially, both profile very low in their deliveries into the box amongst fullbacks. On the flip side Leao and Saelemaekers are high in the crosses per 90 for wide attackers.

But the fact that Milan score a host of chances from crosses doesn't mean they aren't creating from other scenerios, those are just the ones going in. The wide players especially in Leao and Hauge are particularly good at creating shooting chances off the dribble as seen by their almost identical goals. In all competitions so far Leao has 0.98 while Hauge has 0.91 shots creating actions by dribbling. For Hauge all of those has led to goals but not for Leao. Both attempt almost 5 dribbles per game with  4.55 and 4.39 for Hauge and Leao respectively. 

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

This Milan squad is so well built in terms of current and potential ability that it feels like a Football Manager project. Realistically, if the players remain on a positive trajectory, Milan will only need to replace Kjær and Ibrahimovic in the next 7 years. So it's hard to pick out certain players to focus on. I've picked out Raphael Leao and Theo Hernandez due to their influence on the team's general play and directly on scorelines.

Raphael Leao

Leao has been magnificent so far for Milan this season. In all competitions he's recorded 3 goals and 3 assists in 5 starts and 5 sub appearances. That's a goal contribution every 84 minutes. And those aren't false numbers either. With a npxG of 2.5 and xA of 1.6, he's not massively over-performimg his expected contributions by a worrying gap so even regression to the mean won't destroy his numbers entirely.

This is data from LGOP Basically, Raphael Leao is pretty good and his Impact Score of 103 estimates that he's above the average of 100. The Poisson Plot shows that in a perfect season he can contribute about 30 goals to his team.

But let's look at his performance so far this season. Leao is a extremely intelligent player capable of playing out wide or as a central striker. With his pace and dribbling he has provided a direct threat and outlet this season for Milan and his creative side seems to go under the radar. Leao is an excellent crosser with varied types of deliveries in his locker. Whoscored has crossing, key passes and through balls listed as some of his strengths so let's highlight some instances where those proved to be true.

Crossing

In this situation, Leao could easily use his pace to keep running before shooting to the near post or cutting inside and scoring in the far post. However, with 2 defenders closing him down he spots 3 Milan runners approaching the penalty area. What does he do?

He plays a beautiful cross into the path of Zlatan who finishes the chance. Now, despite Ibrahimovic's height, the uncapped Portuguese starlet knows to play it low and across goal just ahead of the defender. 

This is another crossing scenario. Leao is surrounded out wide with 2 players while Ibrahimovic in the centre is sandwiched between 2 defenders. Still

Through Balls

In all competitions this season, Leao has just 1 through ball and it led to a goal for Milan. His 0.24 through balls per 90 ranks below the likes of Castellejo on 0.59.

Once again Leao is on the ball and I. All fairness he's surrounded. There's 4 players around him and the clearest pass is blocked off too. Theo Hernandez is offside so that's not a valid option either. Noche problema

He very smartly dink it through the crowd and into the path of Zlatan who latches onto the through pass to score.

Generally, Leao hasn't showcased his true ability to the Milan team but the glimpses have been extremely promising.

This is from Macro football  .His impact on goalscoring in Milan has been recognizable and welcome. His defensive contributions are a little suspect and his shooting has been average but overall it's been a positive season for him.

Theo Hernandez

Not many cross the Madrid divide, Morata, Marcos Llorente (ok maybea few in recent years) but Theo Hernandez did. He's a Champions League winner with Madrid and even though he was a back up in the capital he started 13 games. His move to Milan raised a few eyebrows (his brother Lucas did move to Bayern for around €80 million). But Theo has cleared all the doubters and in some corners there's suggestions Bayern got the wrong Hernandez.

This season, he had 3 goals and 4 assists to his name and at this rate his return of 7 goals and 3 assists looks in trouble. His xG and xA are 1.7 and 2 so he's over-performimg his expected numbers but it's not an outrageous gap so any regression won't mean these figures won't take a massive hit. 

His toolbox is that of a modern fullback. Pace and stamina are some of his biggest strengths but he adds to that height which allows him to be an aerial presence and natural attacking instincts. Crossing however isn't one of strengths or duties in general this season.

In Pioli's system Theo is worked into shooting positions rather than receiving the ball in extremely wide areas. 

This is a situation that Milan look to create quite often. Pulling the opposition into spaces to create gaps in the left half space for Theo to shoot.

Or, they play the pass to the feet or in the air for Ibrahimovic to lay it off into the path of Hernandez. 

These sort of situations make the best of Theo's attacking instincts especially his ability to run onto loose balls and shoot. He has 1.33 shots per games and as a fullback that's a fair amount. Even though those aren't of the best quality, his shots are encouraging. 

This is the last gasp equalizer against Parma. When Calabria is crossing the ball, Theo isn't even in the frame. He's running into the Parma half from the halfway line. 

The ball doesn't get to him first as Rebic's shot is saved but he's doesn't halt his run but gets into a shooting position and his shot is buried in the bottom corner.

Those aren't the only impressive players so far this season. Hakan has been remarkable as a creative presence. His expected assists of 0.39 per game, 4.26 key passes per game and 2.28 passes into the penalty area show just how central he is to chance creation for Pioli. 

DEFENSIVE SOLIDITY

Defensively, Milan have really good stats that show their solidity. Of course they'll be without Kjær who had played every minute till his injury for a while. They've conceded 0.91 goals p90 which is a little under their  1.13 expected goals against p90. But if you peel away the penalties they're only expected to concede 0.99 non-penalty goals against per 90. That's the 15th best in Serie A. They're also 15th best for passes into the penalty area allowing 7.36 into their area as well as conceding 7.55 key passes, also 15th. 

They aren't the best in the league and Napoli, Juventus, Roma and to an extent Atalanta have much better defensive stats.

Milan defend as a unit with Romagnoli and Kjær being really solid defenders. Theo Hernandez and Davide Calabria are capable defenders though not the best one on one. But key to their defensive play is the double pivot ahead of them. Franck Kessie and Ismael Bennecar are very good players with a combo of technical ability and defensive nauce especially in Kessie.

When being attacked, Milan often use Kessie and Bennecar to plug the holes between the fullback and centre back. Kessie will often lead the press in deeper positions to try and win the ball or Theo Hernandez would do that while Kessie drops in the left back spot. 

But when building up, Kessie or Bennecar will very often drop into the left centre back space but not only to help buildup. This allows them to guard against turnovers when building up. There's a degree of protection to allow the fullbacks use their pace to recover. 

Milan have been extremely promising this season. Their underlying metrics suggest this isn't a false start but the key question is how consistent can they be. Without Zlatan they've shown they can be quite impressive and now without Kjær, Pioli will be asking youth of Gabbia and Kalulu to step into the huge hole. It promises to be a lovely ride and in May we'll see what exactly we're hailing; Milan back in the Champions League or Milan breaking the Juventus stronghold. 

Until then, Forza Milan.