The Ligue 1 Bargains Not Staring Us in the Face
Football is a pretty straightforward game. Eleven people kick a ball about for 90 minutes while someone in a boardroom breaks his head trying to balance the spreadsheets. Football finance has never been difficult to manage, then a pandemic hit. Pandemic meant lockdown. Lockdown meant empty stands. Empty stands meant no matchday revenue. As if that was not enough, MediaPro decided to destabilize French football. The top two tiers of French football are slowly heading into a less than promising financial period. There are suggestions that players or even clubs will need to be sold to keep the division’s financial integrity. Of course when things like this there’s always someone that is eagerly waiting to profit from the situation.
French football historically has developed and exported some of the biggest talents in football. If we ignores the minefield they produced in the older generation and slid into the current generation, they will still be a massive appreciation for the consistency with which they have churned out world class talent. It is typified in the fact that Ayemeric Laporte has never been capped by the national team despite being one of the most expensive players in football’s history following his move to Manchester City from Athletic Club. To be fair their centre back options include Varane, Zouma, Kimpembe, Kounde, Upamencano, Konate amongst others. Not that they're afraid to sell either. Last summer Lille moved Victor Oshimhen on to Napoli for a mere estimated 70 million Euros. The year before it was Ndombele to Spurs for around 60 million. Those are the big guns but without a doubt there are numerous deals with much less hype. Ibrahima Diallo to Southampton, Ait-Nouri to Wolves, Raphinha to Leeds, Areola and Anderson to Fulham. The Premier League definitely dealt with Ligue 1 clubs in the summer.
Sadly when talent level this high meets a crisis this bad, the sharks start to circle. There’s a lot of fish in the sea but what’s the fun in highlighting the brightest fish in the sea. Let’s pull the curtains away a bit more and look for the players with lesser reputation who might prove to be bargains for clubs in the rest of the top 4 leagues or the bigger clubs in nations like Belgium, Portugal, Netherland etc.
Before, we take a look at the XI here are criteria I used to decide if the players were both viable bargain options and not yet gathering the steam to make their inclusion seem routine or expected to people who are not as familiar with Ligue 1 football.
Must not play for any of the top 5 most reputable clubs in france i.e PSG, Lyon, Lille, Marseille, Monaco
Must be under 25
Must have played at least half the minutes available to him so far this season.
For each outfield pick I'll be comparing my views from watching them and their stats to @macro_football public algorithm. Please check out his website https://macro-football.com/ if you would like to see more players in the top 5 leagues.
- That a summary of what we'll see later and how to interpret the cards below.
GOALKEEPER
Understandably, there are not many Ligue ! goalkeepers under 30 playing regularly, let alone 25. All the viable options have been kicked out by the rest of the criteria. Rajkovic, Mainagan and Lafonte all have had their names touted relatively often in recent years. So our pick is Paul Bernardoni, the 6 ft 2 Angers goalkeeper. At 23 he’s one of the youngest goalkeepers in the league. He’s conceded 27 goals from an xG of 22.8. While that is not really impressive he’s managed to save a penalty from 3 faced.
DEFENDERS
RIGHT BACK
Fabien Centonze at Metz has had a terrific season. For Metz this season he’s played as a typical right back even being asked to play further forward on occasions. Centonze is very much a proper defender with the engine to cover the distance. His defensive numbers are extremely solid for a player in the league. With his fairly tall frame at 6ft for a fullback coupled with his aggression he is always up for duels, in the air or on the ground. He’s fairly inconsistent when faced by dribblers being dribbled passed 1.12 times per 90 and winning the duels half the time. For all that, he has good awareness and willingness to put his body across balls to block shots Centonze has pace to burn and can be an effective prescence in the final third. Unlike the modern fullback, he does not cross the ball very often preferring comination play around the edge of the box. So far this season he has only crossed the ball into the area 10 times. His attacking contributions can improve. For a fullback in this era 1 expected assist and 0.59 key passes per 90 are humble contributions. One of his strenghths is he’s always looking to relieve pressure from Metz with switches, which he completes 0.82 per 90, and especially by attempting long passes. So far this season he has a success rate of 45% while attempting 6.41 per 90.
Very good defensive impact as mention earlier but offensively Centonze will have to do a lot better. 5 is a terribly poor score especially for fullbacks and it drags his overall down to a tame 11.
His unorthodox attacking decisions will deter interest in him from the very top sides especially with his reluctance to put the ball into dangerous areas when out wide. His overeagerness in certain situations can leave spaces behind and that might be a deterent too. However hes shown extremely promising signs and his ceiling is definitely worth taking a punt.
Everton, possibly back up or replacement for Coleman. He could offer protection if James continues on the right.LEFT BACK
At left back is Stade Brestois Romain Perraud. If Centonze has been terrific the Perraud is pretty much godlike. He is a very different player from Centonze and his attacking numbers highlight that. 3 goals and 5 assists from an xG and xA of 1.1 and 1.3 respectively show his efficiency has been very impressive thus far. While probably unsustainable, the numbers are not an unhealthy overperformance that suggest he would come crashing down soon. His contribution to the Brest left side are enormous with him covering ground and serving as a outlet and threat. Averaging 1.06 key passes p90 as well as 2.8 passes into the final third are impressive but watching Perraud you appreciate his ability to get into positions in the final third where he can either finish or create. So far 1.3 passes into the penalty area and 2.3 shot creating actions highlight his quality. So do his 11 goal creating actions.
This is just amazing to look at. He's pulling his weight and more defensively, offensively and even in his shot impact. For a full back these scores are God tier. A full back with 11% of his teams shots, 5% of their xG and 11% of usage is a huge attacking influence.
Perraud is not awful defensively but he definitely can improve there. His ball retention will also hinder him if he’s to move as he can struggle to protect it at times. He will also have to more assertive in duels both on the ground and in the air. His attacking contributions however show promise that can’t be neglected.
Leicester if they lose Ricardo Periera, for one he's a left footer and could bring a nice balance.
CENTRE BACKS
JEAN-KEVIN DUVERNE: Duverne is a right footed ball-playing centre back who plays predominantly on the left. He was particularly impressive last season with his biggest weakness being he struggled with aerial duels. But this season he’s gone from a success rate of under 47% to above 55%. Duverne is a progressive passer, who is willing to try riskier passes in order to break the initial line of press. He has a pass completion rate of 82.9% with just over 8% of his completed passes progressive. He doesn’t shy away from playing long angled passes completing 10.7 per 90. He is comfortable receiving the ball and playing passes through the lines when pressured by forwards. That would be very important for teams who dominate possession though he would be better on the right in this case so he can receive on his stronger foot. Duverne is an astute reader of the game with good judgement of when to push up for an offside trap or drop deep to cover for his partner or even push wider to cover for his marauding fullback, who weve discussed already, romain Perraud.
Duverne would be a highly regarded bargain signing for a couple of reasons. He has recently lost his place in the Brest backline after a suspect run of form and the team has been fairly solid without him. Despite being captain, that might mean they take bids into serious consideration but make no mistake Duverne has quality and like all players has suffered a dip. He could easily move upward and play in a better side and might be ideal for a side trying to play out the back but working on a tight budget.
LOIC BALDE: Lens are definitely the surprise package in Ligue 1 this season. Sitting pretty in 8th place following promotion this season and 20 year old Loic Bade has been a major part of that. After coming through the famed Le Havre academy Bade has taken to the top division like a fish to water. Standing at 6’3 and aided by a proactive and aggressive style to defending, Bade is at home in the centre of a back 3. With 10.7 pressures attempted per 90 highlighting his esgerness to win the ball combined with 5.2 tackles and interceptions too. He has pace to aid the raw edges as he can get drawn out and commit fouls. Still a very intelligent player, Bade cover for his wiider centre back when required. For all the grit and athleticism, Bade is comfortable on the ball and has a decnt passing range. He does not shy away from long balls completing 12.4 per 90 with majority sent wide.
Excellent defensive impact which shows just how good he's been as a defender for Lens. Minimal influence on attack as well as shots can be forgiven as he's a centre back but a 79 overall in his first top flight season is mighty.
Any move for Balde would have to be carefully considered, particularly because of the system Lens play. Occasionally, his inexperiences shines through but in a back three flanked by more mature Gradit and Fortes (both 28) he has a certain amount of cover. The rougher edges of his game can definitely improve but he needs a team playing a back 3 so he isn’t immediately asked to perform more on his own without adapting.
Wolves, his experience in a back 3 helps his cause here. Over time he can step in a a Coady replacement.
MIDFIELDERS
CENTRE MIDFIELDERS
ANGELO FULGINI: Fulgini has been playing in the French tiers since his teenage years. He’s versatile and can occupy different midfield roles as well as play as a right back or flat right midfield. Fulgini is a technically gifted player always trying to dribble (attempts 4.31 p90) or carry the ball forward(52.6 carrier p90). That’s is no surprise seeing as he started out as a fullback and is merely translating the skills central. He also has a nice eye for a pass although the execution varies in game. This translates directly into him winning a fair amount of fouls almost 4 a game (actually 3.88). Considering his prowess and delivery from dead ball situations that is a really tasty combo. He has created 12 shots from set pieces alone this season and a further 5 from fouls he’s drawn. 2.25 passes leading to shots per 90 as well as 3.5 passes into the final third per 90 indicate his creativity even though most of the chances he creates are not entirely clear cut. His finishing is consistent especially from long range and he has scored in all but his initial pro seasons. He’s also particularly good at reading and attacking the space ahead of him. His goal against Rennes is a nice example. For the goal, he find himself between the central defenders. When the ball is recycled by his defenders he moves deeper before turning and sprinting into the space ahead. Now there’s some fortune as the defender mistimes a header ba ut despite being closed down he puts his body across the defender and conjures a sumptuous lobbed finish off balance from just inside the area.
This is a bit surprising. His low offense score should be because he's a high volume shooter and his actual goal or expected goal count don't agree with him taken that many. He should be working harder defensively and his 60 shot score backs my take of consistent finishing technique. BUT he's a midfielder x fullback with 16% of Angers shots, 12% of the xG and he's basically the primary creative spark with 31% usage.
Fulgini is undoubtedly one of the more talented players in this XI, if not the most. His defensive contributions can be inconsistent but he is a good presser of the ball and can definitely slide into a more organized and talented midfield with ease. He’s ready for the next level.
Brighton, in the role behind a striker where he could compliment Bissouma nicely behind him as well as add to the attacking impetus.
ROMAIN FAIVRE: In the entire XI there is probably only one player having a better season than 22 year old Brest midfielder Faivre. In the absence of Ibrahima Diallo who moved to Southampton he has stepped up as the midfield talisman. 4 goals and 3 assists in 18 appearances is an excellent returm but it doesn’t tell the full story. His xG is 4 and given models often undervalue chances, he could have a much healthier return if he was finishing slightly better. In fact he has missed 4 so called big chances and for a midfielder that highlights his ability to get into gangerous areas. His xA is 3.8 too so again if his teammates were finishing better that could be translating to higher assist figures. In the entire Ligue 1 he ranks highest for shot creating actions with 85 at a rate of 5.27 per 90. Faivre has showcased his creativity this season in both open play and deadball situations. He’s often utilised behind a strike pair coming in off the wide areas at times. Faivre is a silky dribbler averaging 3.17 dribblers a game, often going on mazy runs before trying to slip through passes into a teammate. He’s technically gifted with a smooth first touch and clean ball striking ability that is behind his clean deliveries from corners, freekicks as well as scoring freekicks too. Very often he makes runs into the box and that has been a source of his goals and shooting chances, whether from following up or lay offs.
Let's agree to disagree on this one. He's a lot better than those numbers, watching him and going through micro stats. However, we agree that he's very involved in chance creation (37% is insane in his first pro season) as well as shooting.
Faivre’s talent is clear to see but hesistation might come from the fact that this is his first full professional season. Prior to this year he started 1 game for Monaco in 18/19 before missing the entire last season. Not that it should but clubs might want a better look at him interms of consistency before taking a punt. He’s not extremely overperforming his underlying mterics so the signs are encouraging and whoever picks him up will be fortunate.
Marseille, to play the role Cuisance has been playing in this season and not standing out.
WIDE MIDFIELDERS/FORWARDS
Armand Lauriente: On the surface this looks a controversial pick. Lauriente is 22 and plays for FC Lorient who are rooted to 19th place in the Ligue 1 table. No goals and only 2 assists to his name so far which seems a miserly return for a proposed bargain signing. The underlying numbers state his case. In the entire Europe Lauriente is one of the best under 23 playmakers.
In this viz by @Marcusbr22 on Twitter you can see how Lauriente stacks up to other creators in his age group.
He’s averaging 5.2 shot creating actions but those are not being translated into goal creating actions. Less than 10% of those are being converted into goals. That’s the issue. Lauriente is progressive when in possession, ranking top for progressive distance when carrying the ball.
If I disagreed with Faivre's I'm nodding my head vigourously to this. Lauriente is an excellent chance creator and play driver. The offensive and defensive impact scores are just about right. Sadly, so is the shot score. His shooting is particularly bad due to his technique and simply decision making. If he bumps that up even to a 50, we have a serious threat on our hands.
Lauriente is a creator in chief but he’ll need to brush up some areas of his game. His finishing is dodgy and he’s prone to taking shots with little probability of scoring. Generating an xG of 0.8 from 21 shots is a clear sign of that. He is also prone to losing his head and fouling players. If he’s to move, he will need a team where wide players are tasked primarily with creation rather than scoring. He is definitely good enough to play for a team struffling for Ligue 1 survival.
Lille, as a replacement for Ikone or Bamba if they lose either anytime soon.Habib Diallo: Diallo is a versatile player, able to play on the right or through the middle as a striker. He’s shoehorned into this XI on the left. What does he bring? Diallo has consistently proven to be a deadly striker, not requiring a myriad of chances to get on the score sheet. From 25 shots this season he’s scored 6 non-penalty goals, which is more impressive when you add that he’s non-penalty xG is a mere 2.8. While he does have a tendency to take a pop from long range (his goal against Brest was a lovely strike from outside the area), he often gets into promising posiyions. He’s almost 6’2 and can be useful in the air too. Out wide, he very often drifts in and out of games not contributing much until he scores. His ball retention is fairly abysmal, whether by miscontrolling (3.3 times per 90 is drastic) or in duels (dispossessed 1.56 times per 90). He also does not press much just above 7 per 90 while not contributing much defensively either.
He’ll be perfect in a team where he’s asked to drop off rather than press before breaking at pace. For a counter-attacking team his effiecency in front of goal will be crucial. Sounds like he’ll be perfect for Mourinho and Spurs but I doubt he’s ready for the premier league with his technical limitations.
*Ibrahima Niane: The man, Diallo left behind at Metz this summer to bear the attacking burden. Niane has coped just fine when he’s been available scoring 5 from a non-penalty xG of 2.4. Only 21 but in the past 2 seasons he has been a strong finisher. He’s a threat on counters with a blend of pace and direct running, particularly when he receives the ball in space. With 3.46 dribbles attempted and completing about half of that. He's raw and is used as a sort of pacy, powerful target man who they can fire balls into. He can miscontrol them but prior to his injury he made it work.
*Has torn his ACL and will be out for months.
Excellent finisher. You want him taking 28% of your shots and accumulating 45% of your xG. It will translate to goals without a doubt. If he can improve himself technically, and his retention then I don't see why he can't play at a higher level.
Boulaye Dia: Joint top scorer in Ligue 1. 12 goals from 8.7 xG. Dia is the definition of clinical. He's taken only 29 shots and scored 7 open play goals in contrast to Mbappe's 8 from 45. His goal to shot ratio of 0.29 p90 is only bested by Mavidi, Volland and Honorat leaving him 3rd. Per 90 he takes about 1.93 shots yet he scores so many, highlighting his efficiency at shooting. He's good at running of the shoulder of the last defender with the strength to hold off defenders. He can also dribble himself out of tight spaces to score goals or escape markers. He enjoys dribbling and can finish with his weaker left foot if the situation demands it. At times he can struggle to keep hold of the ball and he's very often bullied in the air. Just 28% of aerial duels won is very poor. That might make a case to play him on the right as a inside forward or with a partner up front.
Let it sink in for a moment. Look at all that red. A truly magnificent finisher who has steadily improved that area if his game. He's on the end of numerous chances for Reims and that is exactly how it should be. Having a glorious season so far and we can only appreciate!
Dia is without a doubt having a season that would demand teams consider him as a serious option. Physically he might not be ready for to start week in week out in Premier League but he's definitely more than talented enough to play in the top 5 leagues. Just turning 24, he's without a doubt a serious prospect and has time to develop the weaker areas of his game.
Milan as a more long term solution to the striker issue with Zlatan 39 now.Some other notable mentions.
Wout Faes (CB) at Stade Reims
Boubakar Kouyate (CB/RB) at Metz
Junior Sambia (RB) at Montpellier
Andrea Cubas (CM) at Nimes Olympique
Arnaud Kalimuendo (ST) at RC Lens
Will any of these players leave before the January window is up? We don't know. But they're all ones to watch and I'm sure they're names are popping up on analysts reports all over Europe. If not, there might be a problem and at the very least their careers will be exciting to follow.
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