Atalanta, Sevilla and Leicester: The Underdogs who Spooked the Giants with Competent Recruitment

Footsteps. There are 2 very different kind of footsteps. The first are those you actually hear around the corner. The second however are what pushed 12 "super" clubs to form a breakaway "super" league. The second set of footsteps are those you hear in your head when you're doing something wrong. Sometimes you're imagining them. Sometimes they're there but you're head makes them louder and nearer than they really are. Leicester's footsteps. Sevilla's footsteps. Atalanta's footsteps. All sounded much louder than they were. 

In England there's the 6 biggest commercially successful clubs, rightly or wrongly dubbed "the big 6". And then there's plucky Leicester. Plucky Leicester who dared to win the league this decade in 15/16. Plucky Leicester who dared to get into Europe twice and are looking to get in again. 6 into 4 is a difficult enough equation. 7 into 4 would be travesty. Same in Italy. There's a meddling Atalanta. The club who Agnelli deemed not historic enough to be in the Champion's League. In Italy beyond the Milan giants and Juventus, there's Napoli, Roma and Lazio who are all fighting for the Champions League spots. The same Champions League Atalanta were dying minutes away from reaching the semi-finals of just last season. And then in Spain, there's Sevilla who are daring to do the minimum in terms of challenging the big bad duopoly turned duopoly+1 of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. Los Rojiblancos have finished 4th just twice since 16/17 (6th and 7th other times). La Dea have finished in the top 4 of Serie A three times since 16/17. The Foxes have finished 5th, 9th and 12 since they won the league in 15/16.

So what exactly do those 12 clubs have to fear?

It's simple. Well run clubs. Clubs working smarter than the rest not just because they have very high ambition but because they realize they don't have leeway to make the expensive mistakes those above them do. It's not complex economics. If I have a larger pool of money to reach into for investments, I will take more risks. If I don't, like Leicester, Sevilla and Atalanta I will work harder to cover every angle before I make investments. 

Arsenal spent 72 million on Nicolas Pepe and he's contributed 18 goals and 15 assists in 2 seasons. That's 4 less goals than his final season in Lille and just 4 more assists. Real Madrid paid over 100 million for Eden Hazard and though injuries have hindered his performance, 4 goals and 5 assists is a horrendous return for the investment. Danny Drinkwater has made 23 appearances for Chelsea in 4 seasons and is on a rumoured 100k a week contract. For context, Josip Ilicic, who could claim to be the best footballer on the planet for a stretch last season, is on less than £50,000 a week at Atalanta. I'm sure Leicester would love the liberty to try and fail to replace their key players with deals worth over 100 million like Barca. Atalanta would like to sign the Man of the Match from a Champion's League final the following summer and yet somehow squeeze only 4 goals out of him then sell him on the very next summer for around a loss of 20 million. Chelsea's back up goalkeeper is the most expensive goalkeeper in history at 72 million. Atalanta, Leicester and Sevilla signed their starting goalkeepers for a combined €9.5 million.

Football results will always be earned on the pitch. The entire sport was designed to work that way in its purest form. But what you do off the pitch will give you the best chance to achieve that especially recruitment. The team behind the team is important. Sevilla had the huge brain of Monchi behind their operation. In his first season back in Seville he brought in what felt like an entire new squad. Jules Kounde, Diego Carlos, En-Nesyri, Bono, Regulion, Fernando, Suso, Jordan, De Jong and Ocampos are just 11 of those. The values of most of these have doubled or even trebled since then. It's not witchcraft. It's expertise. Manchester United have Ed Woodward who has a major say in their transfers. Under his guidance they've needed a defensive midfielder for what seems like eternity and have literally spent money on every other position on the pitch. Arsenal have changed their structure but the results aren't bright either. Expertise that the biggest clubs simply haven't shown in a while let alone basic competence.

But beyond finding bargains, you can trust these clubs with succession planning. They consistently have to plan to move on their best players and replace them with competent players. That's not something the big boys have to consistently deal with but they've struggled with. 

Leicester have moved on Maguire and Chilwell for a combined 130 million. Replacements, Wesley Fofana, Caglar Soyuncu, James Justin and Timothy Castagne have come in for less than 90 million combined. That's 2 players each and you could argue with higher ceilings.

Barca still haven't replaced Neymar but have spent almost 400 million on players that can play his position from the forgotten Malcom to the flop Coutinho. Before Zlatan this season, the last Milan striker to score up to 15 league goals was Carlos Bacca back (see what I did there x) in 15/16. That's years of Piatek, Cutrone, Andre Silva, Lapadula, Niang, Kalinic underperforming. Tottenham's current right back options are a rash Aurier and a grossly underwhelming Matt Doherty after losing Trippier. Arsenal have needed a creative presence since Ozil's output dipped. They tried with Denis Suarez which was an abysmal experiment and have resulted to loan signings of Odegaard and Ceballos. Smith-Rowe's excellence has bailed them out.

 Juventus, as recent as last season, had 6 midfield options that included Matuidi, Khedira, Pjanic, Rabiot, Bentancur and Ramsey. None of whom you could argue would be in a list of the top 50 center midfielders on the planet at any given point. This season they've swapped Pjanic for Arthur while losing Matuidi and Khedira which somehow makes it even worse. Atletico are yet to reap the fruits of the 60 million they paid for Thomas Lemar and despite the bright sparks Joao Felix's 120 million move hasn't exactly been justified. 

There's something brewing in Bergamo. Something on Filbert way and in Andalusia that's spooked the big boys. Something born of competent recruitment which is something the big boys seem to lack bar maybe Liverpool and Man City. If I was Arsenal, of course I'd run to a Super League. Do I think I can match up to Leicester at the rate they're going? No. It's simple. This season Sevilla are 3 points behind Atletico in first. They're in the title race, quietly but definitely can't be ignored anymore. Atalanta's last couple of games means they can realistically finish second in Serie A. Leicester are in the driving seat to finish third in the Premier League.

There's an Igbo proverb that goes "Adaghi agwa onye kpuru isi na agha na-abi". They don't tell a blind man that war is coming. Why? His ears will hear the sounds. Nobody needs to tell those big clubs who have been in steady decline that their positions are under threat. Nobody is naive enough to suggest Leicester, Sevilla and Atalanta can surpass the commercial success of these juggernauts. At the same time, nobody should be dumb enough to ignore the threat they pose to the status quo. A very welcome threat.