Werner: Chelsea's #11 A Review, Preview and Everything in Between
Almost every signing generates enormous buzz from fans and even rivals alike. The moment Fabrizio Romano confirms a player's signing with his trademark "Here We Go" there's eager fingers bouncing off keyboards all over the world. Tweeting support (or slander). Searching YouTube for Goals, Assists and Skills HD comps. Googling his stats. And if you're particularly nerdy (like me) there's a customary and compulsory fbref check.
The same was true for Timo Werner. You could describe it as hijacking a deal but after months of being linked with Liverpool, Turbo Timo signed for Chelsea instead.
One year later?
It's a mixed bag of opinions. Yes, he's missed tonnes of chances. But, he's won a CL medal and been key to it. Yes, he's cost Chelsea some points. But, he's also won Chelsea some ties. We could go on and on.
And we will. Here we'll take a deep dive into Werner's season. The statistics, tactics; everything. An in-depth review and follow that up with a preview. Here are some of the questions that this should give you a clearer answer to.
Did Chelsea really need to sign Werner?
Has he been good, bad or worth the money paid?
What did he do wrong? And why?
Did he do anything right? And what?
Is it worth sticking with him next season?
How can Chelsea bring out the best in Werner ahead of next season?
The first question is obvious.
How did Werner perform for Chelsea in his first season?
It's not as straightforward as "He was brilliant or bad." The answer, whatever it may be, is difficult to provide without personal sentiment. Understandably so. Stats and macro models however are as objective as it gets so let's involve them.
It's very rare you find a forward who finished the season with 24 direct goal contributions to be the subject of such uncertainty. If you include penalties won that jumps to 29. 12 goals, 12 assists. 3818 minutes. In fact, for Chelsea Werner ranks top 3 in most of the key attacking metrics.
Selected stats that Werner ranks top 3 for Chelsea.
This is Werner's player card from @macro_football on Twitter.
It's a very good summary of Werner's season for Chelsea. High defensive impact, very solid offensive impact and woeful finishing (i.e shot impact). The one feature on the card that "stands" out is his usage.
Usage as defined by @macro_football
Werner's usage is 30%. That means that when he's playing he either takes or creates 3/10 of Chelsea's xG. For reference, Mount is at 26%, Havertz at 21% and Pulisic at 23%. Hudson-Odoi is at 15%. He's the most for any Chelsea attacker.
This isn't all. He's also top or near top for obvious stats like shots, shots on target etc. There are 2 major implications of this.
The first is Werner is a major part of Chelsea's attacking force. His contributions to the team are undeniably important. Ifs and buts but if Werner had finished off more of his chances his numbers would suggest a very serious threat despite his other flaws.
The second is an indictment on Chelsea's attacking force. Werner's form dropped off before the turn of the year and still no player was trusted to come in and give the team a similar or greater amount of threat. Under Lampard and Tuchel he was given an important role.
That leads us onto our next bone of contention.
What role was Werner brought in for? What role did Lampard play him in? Did Tuchel change anything?
The German has always had one thing in particular going for him at all points in his career. Pace. Chelsea knew that when they brought him in. But the forward line before he joined wasn't exactly lacking pace and direct threat. Pulisic and Hudson-Odoi offer that. They had brought in Ziyech to offer creativity from wide spaces. So why Timo? Firstly, the squad was losing Willian and Pedro and those areas needed new blood. But Chelsea couldn't afford to get someone who was a replica of what they already had in Ziyech, Pulisic and Hudson-Odoi. At the same time, they couldn't afford to get a replica of what they were losing in Willian and Pedro. That's where Werner comes in. Werner was different enough to the crossing and take-on Chelsea had already. BUT he also solved another problem (or at least was meant to). GOALS. Werner scored 28 goals in his last Bundesliga campaign for Leipzig. Chelsea struggled for a consistent source goals beyond Tammy Abraham. Deep down Lampard knew he could not rely on purple patches (see Giroud x Pulisic post lockdown). That leads us nicely into the next question?
How did Lampard use Werner?
Chelsea's all time highest goalscorer got some things right as the Blues boss. Werner's role was not one of them. The first red flag came in his very first game; Timo as a lone striker against Brighton's towering back 3. After the game Werner himself said he didn't play against such powerful defenders in Germany. The next red flag came the very next game; Werner on the left. Here too he moved quite centrally. Werner wasn't even bad in these games but it was the genesis of themes that spread through Lampard's tenure. Werner played as a left winger, right winger, striker and a second striker in the rest of his games under the Blues ex-coach. All that shifting around meant he
Never mastered a certain role in the side since he played more than one. That inevitably led to 2.
He couldn't stay in form because he was simply shunted into another role which is linked with 3.
He couldn't play his way back into form because he kept being asked to do different things.
But what things did Lampard want from his German statement signing? It sounds very simplistic but Lampard wanted Werner to finish off chances. He saw him as a goalscorer. Was he wrong? Not at all. Werner had just come off a 35 goal campaign. He had seen him in training months before his debut. But most importantly, Timo even had a good spell of form under him (8 goals and 4 assists in 10 games). In some games he was asked to use his pace to get behind high lines. In others, Lampard wanted him feeding off the physical presence of Tammy or Giroud still with a mandate to score goals.
Were there problems with the role, positioning and usage of Werner under Lampard? Yes. We'll discuss that in a minute. But here's the next question.
How did Tuchel use Werner?
Tuchel had the ultimate benefit of hindsight in relation to his fellow German. While Lampard was trying to recreate the goalscoring fire he knew Timo had inside, Tuchel could simply, from the very start, say "This guy's confidence is shot, let's get him to focus on doing other things." Maybe that was a direct plan of Tuchel and his coaching staff. Maybe it was a by-product of focusing more on defensive stability. Werner under his German counterpart was used in 2 major positions; left forward in a narrow 3 or striker in a 2. Tuchel knew Werner's confidence meant he couldn't be relied on to finish, so he asked him to facilitate. He was occupying the inside left channel more often and even when he was playing up top, he was far from isolated. It meant a lot more assists, more off the ball work, more unappreciated runs, more preassists. It didn't stop him entirely from getting into goalscoring positions. He still did but his finishing wasn't any better. Werner was still missing an alarming number of chances but the hostility to his name on the team sheet slowly dropped off slightly as people began to appreciate what he brought.
What did the people have to appreciate however is key?What did Werner excel at for Chelsea?
Players like Werner are valuable to teams in a lot of ways.
Exploiting a High Line: High lines are very common in progressive and ball dominant teams. If you're going to press high you need your defense line to push up so you don't create a chasm in your midfield. The most straightforward way of exploiting that is….pace. Werner isn't called Turbo Timo for nothing. It's not a surprise that Werner's best game for Chelsea came against Southampton, a team who like to play a high line but don't have the elite level individual quality of defender that most others have. 2 goals and an assist that day. Werner does helps exploit a high line in 3 different ways.
Directly scoring a goal: If you give Werner a lot of space to run into he can hurt you with his pace and finishing especially in transition. There's many ways he can receive the ball to finish. Long balls over the top like the second goal against Southampton or the one called offside vs Liverpool.
Assists: Under Tuchel there's a particular move Werner seems to have mastered. Speeding down either the inside channel or touchline that's been vacated by an opponent caught upfield then angling his run into the penalty area before laying off the ball to a teammate arriving in the centre to tap it home. When you watch each incident back in succession, it starts to look like a well rehearsed pattern especially against opposition looking to take the game to Chelsea. Against Man City in the FA Cup semi final, Ziyech scores twice from such assists (one ruled out for offside). Ziyech also puts away a similar goal against Atletico and misses one against City from point blank range.
Off The Ball Movement: When a team commits to a high line it's a defensive mechanism to maintain high pressure up the field. Often this means the back line becomes a just the 2 or 3 centre backs as the full/wingbacks push up to press. If you win the ball back in this moments and transition with enough men, one can focus on drawing defenders to him to create space for others. Werner excelled at this in spells for Chelsea. Look again at the goal in the Champions League final but now watch Werner instead.
Offering a Direct Threat and Outlet: Football games swing from moment to moment. As a result it's not impossible to find Chelsea under pressure for a spell. In those moments Werner can offer an invaluable outlet. Some other players would do it by dribbling out but Timo rather make a direct run into any space with the ball which could instantly turn a defensive situation into a positive.
What problems did Werner have at Chelsea this season?
There's a standout problem with Werner that I'm sure everyone knows. Let's shelf that for a moment and start with the problems that were actually fixed as the season went on.
Width: Under Lampard one major problem was that Werner often received the ball wide. That's not ideal because you're making him more of a left winger than a left forward. A left winger that's not good at 1v1 dribbling or crossing. You see? Werner needs someone providing width outside him almost as much as he needs someone providing a notable presence inside him. There's often talk of how he needed Poulsen at Leipzig to play at his best. At Leipzig the 4-2-2-2 meant he had width from both a left winger (Forsberg liked to come infield so he was not always providing width) and left back (Angelino is probably one of the best fullbacks in the world at dominating their flank). Even when Nagelsmann played a 3-4-1-2, it meant Angelino could dominate the entire left flank so Werner could focus on working more infield.
That dynamic was something Chilwell struggled to replicate early in the season. He would often arrive too late upfield or be more focused on getting into the box. Voluntarily or involuntarily, Tuchel fixed this by going to a back 3. Having an extra defender meant Chilwell could focus more on providing width and playing higher up. The fact it was Rudiger too meant he didn't need to come deep to progress the ball out of the back. In fact this is how the goal in the Champion's League final comes.
The Lack of a Focal Point: Imagine drawing a perfect circle with no centre. It's difficult. Why? Because a circle is simple the path of revolution about that centre at a particular distance. (Knew paying attention in Descriptive Geometry class would come in handy!) Anyways, let me explain my math nerdiness. Werner is like the circle. He works better with a focal point to revolve around. It's not that he can't work without one but why get 40% if you can get 100%. Werner played as a striker under both Lampard and Tuchel and there's games where that is a necessary tactic. But
These were the most notable struggles for Timo. Of course this isn't all. Werner multiple times was let down by his first touch. He ranks top for miscontrols (108 and 2.85p90) Chelsea with more 30 than the next. He also at times seemed to be on a different wavelength to his teammates. Initially it was easy to blame the fact that teammates were not used to his runs. That's true in a way, Chelsea haven't necessarily had a striker who's first instinct was to dart in behind for some time now. As the season went on it looked more like a product of overeagerness to end his poor scoring luck.
Speaking of, scoring luck; let's address the elephant in the room. Werner's Finishing.
Werner's finishing was terrible this season. He needs to get better. Ok we're done here, it'll all be better once he picks a corner and blasts it into it.
Well not exactly.
This is Werner's shotmap. For Chelsea from open play this season (via Understat). If you understand the colour code, 1 thing jump out immediately. There's not enough green. For a striker there's simply not enough goals. Especially for a 50 million signing expected to bang them in.
There's the obvious things like Werner is underperforming his xG. 9 goals from 16.1 non penalty xG across the season is criminally poor. For comparison Mohammed Salah has outperformed his npxG by 19.1, 1.4, 2.2 and 3.4 goals in his 4 seasons at Liverpool.
There's also the fact that Werner is particularly awful at converting the biggest chances. But this isn't even a new thing. In fact missing 18 big chances is the least he's missed in a domestic season since 2018/19.
The key is to accept that Werner has never really been a clinical finisher. His goalscoring has always been more a product of getting on the end of a sheer volume of chances rather than consistently hungrily devouring every chance that comes his way. He consistently took over 3 shots per 90 in his final three Bundesliga but he's dropped to just about 2.3 shots per 90.
So obviously the volume of the chances have reduced and that's a problem. Just as big a problem is that the value of those chances has also dropped.
If we compare the shot map of his 2019/20 in Leipzig and 2020/21 in Chelsea.
You don't need a hugely powerful microscope to tell that
The shots are far fewer from good central positions in Chelsea which is where a lot of his Leipzig chances came from.
As a result of 1, the circles at Chelsea are a lot smaller which means the xG value of shots are a lot less.
Here 1+2 ≠ 3. 1+2 here is basically taking a not-so-clinical forward who is quite trigger happy and starving him not only of chances but chances in his favourite areas. Here 1+2=disaster.
Do I see this changing? Unless Tuchel makes a conscious effort to put Werner's shooting chances more centrally, I don't.
That's the systemic issue with Werner's finishing. But there's also a lot down to the German himself.
There are 4 types of Werner misses primarily.
struggles to sort his feet out in time
doesn't get any elevation on the shot
basically rushed the chance
normal off target miss which is common
1 and 2 I have faith he can sort out next season. 3 he needs confidence. 4 is inevitable. Werner's confidence basically fell off a cliff after the November international break. A lot of his big chances missed after that point looked as horrific as they get. That's down to him however. While consistently getting into good positions is a reason not to lose faith, the conversion rate is alarming. Werner himself knows he can't keep a place in the team this coming season, without at least breaking even with his xG.
If we're going to talk of the coming season then the big question is how should Chelsea and Tuchel get the best out of their big signing?
The first thing here is to understand and accept that no matter how much Chelsea paid for Werner, he's not one of the players in the world who it's worth sacrificing certain aspects of your team just so they can perform individually. That's a run-on sentence. Basically if Tuchel put Werner's redemption ahead of the team as a whole, Timo's output wouldn't justify it. There's a wealth of attacking options in Chelsea capable of occupying either of those wide/inside forward positions.
As a result, there's many seemingly simple adjustments that might just not be plausible. For instance, making sure the German is on the end of chances more centrally might have a knock on effect on the positions whoever Chelsea's striker is can take up.
Now we're on the topic of strikers that one way to get the best out of Werner. Chelsea have signed Romelu Lukaku. Lukaku and Werner would be destructive in transition. And I mean absolutely terrifying. Pace, power bringing pure punishment to PL defenses. Lukaku is has the physical gifts of a target man (he's not a target man at all however. In fact he's one of the most complete strikers on the planet) which Werner would no doubt benefit from but his speed (both in terms of thought and raw pace) are invaluable parts of his game that'll bring out the best in Chelsea's #11. Lukaku doesn't mean Chelsea could potentially lose the understanding between Havertz and his German counterpart. There's ways of combining Werner, Havertz and Lukaku. Lukaku has a habit of pulling into the right halfspace which creates room centrally that Werner can run into. Or. Werner himself likes to pull to the left side and with Lukaku pulling into the right a space in the centre can be exploited by well timed runs by Havertz or even Mount.
It's a tricky situation to handle any way you look at it. But Tuchel won't be complaining.
Would he get the chance though? Should he get the chance might be a better question? Chelsea have Hudson-Odoi, Pulisic, Ziyech, Mount and Havertz all fighting for the two positions behind the striker alongside with Timo. 6 into 2 isn't really a proper fraction. Would Werner frustrate you this season as a Chelsea fan? Yes. It's inevitable. They'll be missed chances, poor touches, aimless sprints and marginal offsides. All that has always been part of the package from the very beginning.
Fingers crossed this season, he walks into the Temple of xG with his "Money in the Bank" briefcase of goals and not cashes it in, but demands the high priest and his gods gives him double for the wounds of last season.
Comments
Post a Comment