How Bad will Chelsea Miss Rudiger?

Stone-cold stares. Steely slide tackles. Grit. Grind. Guts. These words have been sewn into the fabric of Chelsea for most of the last 2 decades. Fans have come to expect it, embrace it and for better or worse, even enjoy it. It’s understandable for a club that has boasted “hardmen” like John Terry, Didier Drogba and co.

And then there’s Rudiger. The guy who is capable of deathstares but also this tongue out goofiness.

Same guy. 

The German emerged as a leader for a Chelsea team that needed someone with his frankly hilarious combo of pure nutcase and silly clown. Off the pitch Tuchel and his staff will miss the vibe the German brought to the dressing room. The focus. The #Hustle #AlwaysBelieve mentality.

On it?

The brains behind Chelsea’s recruitment have a task on their hands replacing the Stuttgart youth product.  

Why though? What did Rudiger bring to Chelsea?

Here's a 6 track EP to answer that.  

#1 - INTRO

Under the Tuchel, Chelsea have mostly lined up with a 3-4-3. Wingbacks who push very high and wide but retain the freedom to underlap depending on what is going on around them. The forward line acts very differently depending on the combo of players you have. It could be fluid, direct, measured, cross and inshallah…you name it. Even Tuchel is still figuring out the configuration.

With his German compatriot in charge, Rudiger has played predominantly on the left side of a back three. That is a fairly straightforward and common position in elite football. For the 2021/22 season this was the defenders heatmap. (via Sofascore)

Rudiger's Heatmap for the 2021/22 PL Season from Sofascore

The left hand side of the pitch is his territory. Playing in a back 3 allows him to play almost like a fullback who has been told not to overlap zealously. 

Take that one step further.

Rudiger's Heatmap for 2021/22 PL Season from Smarterscout

This is the German international’s heat map for the Premier League season but from smarterscout this time. A quick gloss over shows that he’s predominantly on the left side and also that he’s most active in the middle third of the pitch. Just like the prior map.

But look again. I dare you to. Scroll back up you nerd. You missed the colour coded key on the left. Notice how there are a lot of yellow and bright green boxes? That is because Rudiger more often than not goes for longer or medium length passes when in possession. Why? 

Well, its because his role was slightly more complicated than just an outside defender. Chelsea under Tuchel predominantly play a back 3. The most used trio to lineup in those centre back positions are Rudiger-Thiago Silva- Azpilicueta or Rudiger- Thiago Silva- Christensen. Each player has their role.

Usually in buildup, they line up in a 3-2-5 with the wingbacks high and wide and the striker occupying the teams centre backs. Nothing unusual. In fact, a very common and tiresome trend in modern football. Thiago Silva is the one who is tasked with receiving from the goalkeeper if Chelsea play short. And after that, he’s tasked with progressing the ball. Either he carries a bit before playing a sweetly measured long ball or he keeps it simple with a pass into midfield or to another defender.

Rudiger’s role however is a lot more direct. 

#2 - THE PROGRESSION 

For a lot of elite teams, midfielders are tasked with ball progression. It could whichever of the 8s likes to start deeper or your 6 if they are comfortable receiving, turning and releasing. That is a luxury that playing with a back 3 doesn’t necessarily stop entirely but at least affects. You have just 2 centre midfielders in a pivot. If one starts to over-zealously carry the ball, there’s a gap. So carrying can be problematic. Passing too has its issues. If I’m a midfielder looking for a progressive pass, I have one less option. Why? Because there are 3 centre backs behind me more often than not. 

Quick fix?

Let those defenders who have the entire game ahead of them drive the team forward. Thiago Silva and Antonio Rudiger are immense and irreplaceable for Chelsea at that. The Brazilian progresses the ball in a calm, unhurried manner. Favouring shorter passes and carries in buildup.  Rudiger on the other hand brings impetus to his progression. His style is a delicate oxymoron. With him, it is sort of controlled chaos. Not a direct antonym to Silva’s patience but rather a complimentary opposite. Always looking to progress the ball yet constantly choosing the right option. Well thought out impatience.

The best part of his ball progression however is the variation. The marauding carries up the pitch are very fun to watch.

Amongst centre backs he's above the 90th percentile for progressive passes (95th - 4.85/90) and progressive carries (93rd - 5.43/90).

Elite ball playing and ball carrying wrapped neatly into both feet make it very difficult to cut off Rudiger's ball progression entirely. Drop off and he can run at you with the ball at his feet. Step up and there's space in behind to be hurt by a well timed long ball.

Possibly the best way to explain his importance to Chelsea. Compared with the other CB options it is fairly obvious that Rudiger was crucial to Chelsea's ability to get the ball forward from defence. Last season no player played more than his 161 progressive passes in the league.

Naturally, all that progression means the ball often ends up in the final third when he's in possession. No surprise then that he's again above the 90th percentile for passes into the final third (98th - 7.27/90), carries into the final third (99th -1.97/90), passes into the penalty area (99th - 0.77/90) and carries into the penalty area amongst centre backs in the top 5 leagues. For Chelsea he's played the most passes into the final third with 220. Per 90 only Kovacic's 6.94 beats his 6.93 passes into the final third. 

#3 - VIBES (skit)

We interrupt this programme to bring you celebrative Rudiger.

#4 - CREATOR?

Beyond progression, the former Roma man is vital to Chelsea’s chance creation.  In the sense the word is usually associated with, Rudiger is not exactly creative. Far from a flamboyant 10 setting up teammates regularly. The final ball in football can be extremely difficult when you have a lot of the play in front of you. Sometimes you're relying on patterns to know where to deliver the ball. Other times there’s improvisations and you have to quickly spot movements and spaces then quickly play a perfectly weighted pass. Rudiger excels at playing these line breaking passes especially when they are long raking balls behind a defensive line. With him, progressive actions are often punctuated by “creative” ones.

This is the type of pass that is not often talked about when discussing his game and his skillset. Nicely drilled through passes between the lines especially once opponents lose concentration for even a moment. 

His long balls behind however are a well documented feature of his later Chelsea. Pacy forwards like Werner, Lukaku and Pulisic would reap the rewards (if they knew how to score goals of course...but alas!)

His switches of play are my personal favourite. They're very important for Chelsea tactically to build the point of attacks before a defence can shift across and readjust. Coupled with Reece James iron chest and positional astuteness, the 2.53 switches per 90 has a dual purpose of relieving pressure and increasing the attacking potential of possessions.

Here's a clip of some of a line breaking drilled passes, switches and launched passes from the German.

#4 - ROCK.

There's no underestimating Rudiger's defensive abilities, under Tuchel at least. A solid 1v1 defender with often impeccably timed tackles. He got that dawg in him. There's an assertiveness about the defensive actions. Admittedly, sometimes he sprinkles a pinch of recklessness. Front foot defending requires very elite decision making, timing and execution. The former Chelsea man has mastered the trade. However the particular thing Chelsea will miss defensively in his absence is safety he provided against elite right forwards. His duels with Salah especially were magnificent to witness. Maybe he learnt the trick to disturb the Egyptian kings game while they were teammates at Roma. Week in week out, the world watches Salah skin defenders but Rudiger's aggressive stepping up to close down seems to if not shut him down then at least stun him significantly. 

Perhaps the singular most iconic tackle he ever made. If you are Chelsea fan, you need to let this moment sink in. Heart in mouth moment and then comes the messiah. 

#5 - OUTRO (THE INTANGIBLES)

No doubt about it. Madrid are getting one of the best centre backs on the planet and Chelsea are losing him without getting a transfer fee. An elite ball player and ball carrier bundled into an incredibly goofy yet nutcase of a package. How Ancelotti uses him would be interesting. The left back role (already trialed in preseason) is nice in theory but could affect Vinicius higher up the pitch. For Chelsea, Koulibaly is a nice start to filling the gap. A mentally strong character who would lead in the dressing room. He has superb passing range but is really not nearly as direct in possession as the German. He does not carry the ball as often and is almost closer to Thiago Silva in the unhurried approach to ball progression. With this particular departure, Chelsea can fall a few wrungs down the ladder to close the gap on Pep and Kloop's juggarnaut sides, if they don't handle it well. The London club needs a defender who has that 'shot in the arm' style to their game.  Quite frankly, the answer may not even lie entirely in the transfer market. There isn't a sure fire replacement of a similar enough profile out there with the experience and character. There's going to be tactical tweaks. One thing for sure is before the World Cup we'll see if Chelsea rue Rudiger's release.